All smiles on results day … for a few minutes

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Maverick candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to drop out of the race for U.S. president by the end of the week, ABC News reported overnight. If Kennedy, who has been scoring around 5 percent in national polls, were to back Donald Trump it could upset the momentum enjoyed by Kamala Harris just as she basks in her Thursday night speech to the faithful at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Kennedy — who has not confirmed his plans — tweeted that he will address the nation at 7 p.m. U.K. time Friday. Plenty more on the U.S. action overnight below.
Good Thursday morning. This is Dan Bloom.
SAY CHEESE-CSES! Cue the happy faces, humblebragging “advice” on X and the briefest of halts to Westminster tit-for-tat — it’s GCSE results day. Smiling 16-year-olds will adorn the news channels this morning in a rare moment of celebration for our youth, before the SW1 conversation gives way to migration and the public finances. Why change the habit of a lifetime?
Class timetable: The embargo on results in England lifts at 9.30 a.m., with Wales and Northern Ireland out too (Scottish pupils got theirs — or a blank email — a few weeks ago). School Standards Minister Catherine McKinnell has the morning broadcast round and a school visit while Skills Minister Jacqui Smith does media this evening. They’ll presumably be asked about their own grades … though they’ll be hard-pressed to match four-As Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s massive swot moment last week. 
**A message from Google: Google’s Be Internet Legends programme helps children learn key online safety skills and offers fun interactive materials to help children be confident online explorers. This September 12th, you’re invited to join parents, teachers and students for our annual Back to School assembly, in partnership with Parent Zone. Learn more at go/beinternetlegends.**
Class divide: While officials reckon Covid-era grade inflation has now settled back down, Phillipson is rolling the pitch for “entrenched regional disparities” to show up today — with officials briefing that the results gap between London (top) and the North East (bottom) grew since 2019. Expect chat, too, about whether GCSEs are up to the job. The Mail has calls to scrap them from the head of the private Bedales school. 
Class dismissiveness: Phillipson has a Sun op-ed saying the U.K. has ignored and “sneered at” apprenticeships and the like “for far too long.” That’s aimed at pupils who are leaving school, but it’s not selfless — it’s part of the skills agenda on which Labour is betting the house to achieve growth and reduce Britain’s dependence on migration. Ulp. More of that in just a tick.
Right on cue: Monthly figures on the number of young people not in work, education or training are out at 9.30 a.m. here.
RIGHT, BACK TO BUSINESS: Eyes in SW1 will soon switch to the first statistics on the immigration system since the election — which are also out at 9.30 a.m. here. These are not the all-important net migration figures, which are out in November, but could still contain plenty of news nuggets.
Let the tit-for-tat resume: These figures run to June 30, making them a sledgehammer with which the new Labour government can wallop its Tory inheritance. Data includes small boat arrivals, asylum seekers in hotels and the asylum claims backlog. It’s worth pointing out the most recent stats said all three had been coming down. But also keep a wary eye on catches lurking in the small print, like cases that were “withdrawn” and fell out of the system.
But but but … These are also the first stats since a load of Tory visa restrictions took effect, including a ban on newly arrived care workers bringing immediate family, and higher income thresholds for skilled workers and spouses. If visa numbers drop sharply, it’s fair to guess Shadow Home Secretary James Cleverly will use them to say his plan was working all along.
Choose your fighter: Cooper’s Wednesday promise to ramp up migrant removals gets her a furious splash write-up in the Morning Star and backlash via the Independent … but ex-Border Force director Tony Smith told TalkTV all the policies so far are “baby steps” that’ll change little. Pick a side.
SPEAKING OF VISAS: Into all this comes what smells like a significant story — the question of whether Labour could give ground on a “youth mobility scheme” between the U.K. and EU. Despite the government insisting it has no plans for one, the Times’ Oliver Wright and Bruno Waterfield have some front page rumblings about whether it could happen down the line. EU officials say the issue will be “key” to talks about a closer relationship, along with the Erasmus university exchange scheme.
Get Shippers to write another book: A “government source” tells the pair: “No one will say it publicly at this stage but there is an acknowledgment that this is an area where we will need to move. If we are serious about resetting relations with the EU then we need to be prepared to give them some of the things that they want.” Somewhere in Maidenhead, an ex-PM has jolted awake in a cold sweat.
Watch this space: Starmer is due to meet European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen within weeks but negotiations may wait until fall, the Times reports. My POLITICO colleague Jon Stone wrote in this week’s Ex Files newsletter (subscribers only) that ministers were open to enabling things like school trips, student exchanges and cultural cooperation, just not a full-blown scheme for under-30s. A government spokesperson tells the Times: “We are not considering an EU-wide youth mobility scheme.”
LET’S ASK HER? Starmer is working from No. 10 today with no media planned, but his government’s second-most powerful person (well, third after Sue Gray) is out on the stump. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is off to Liverpool to meet Metro Mayor Steve Rotheram and visit a manufacturing firm, a brownfield housing site and a restaurant hit by riots. She is due to record a regional broadcast clip early afternoon, and speak to local radio, BBC North West and ITV Calendar.
Reeves’ peeves: Every day brings another story that closes the walls in on the chancellor a little tighter. After Wednesday’s figures showed borrowing was £5 billion more than forecast, Reeves now faces a headache from a motion that will pop up at the Trades Union Congress in a fortnight. The left-wing PCS union will call — like junior doctors — for “pay restoration in the public sector.” It doesn’t name a figure, but given all the freezes and below-inflation rises since 2010 that’s a big bill. It splashes the FT.
But but but … While TUC President (and Fire Brigades Union chief) Matt Wrack has backed it and said it could get wide support, Starmer-friendly figures in the union movement may be more skeptical. Wrack’s TUC presidency is a figurehead role and will “rotate” to someone else in a few weeks. Will it go to another left-winger … or will the Starmerites bag a TUC president who is more emollient to the government? Watch this space.
FROWNS TO THE LEFT OF ME: The pitch-rolling for tax rises and spending restraint in the Oct. 30 budget continues to piss people off on both sides of the divide. The Guardian has quotes from campaigners and left-wing MPs Kim Johnson and John McDonnell calling (again) for the two-child limit on benefits to be scrapped. That one will run and run.
(Anti-) Soakers to the right: Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has an Express op-ed accusing Reeves of an “economic con” and saying “there is simply no reason or excuse to raise taxes” … there are furious anti-tax-rise leader columns in the Mail and Telegraph … and the Telegraph front page picks up on Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones’ choice of words in a Times Radio interview — that Labour wouldn’t cut “employees’” national insurance. What about employers’ NI, the story asks. 
Bookmark this: A Treasury spokesperson told the Tel the party sticks by its manifesto. It said clearly: “We will not increase National Insurance.”
ICYMI: The i’s Eleanor Langford has a decent run-through of the invidious choices facing Reeves, including “WASPI” women’s pensions … tax thresholds … inheritance tax … capital gains tax … departmental spending … restrictions on PIP benefits … and defense spending.
SCOOP — THE BOOKS ARE IN: Labour outspent the Conservative Party by £18 million in 2023 as it geared up for an election, according to annual accounts filed with the Electoral Commission. Playbook’s bleary-eyed look at Labour and Tory docs overnight suggests Keir Starmer’s party spent £59.5 million to Rishi Sunak’s side’s £41.5 million. Major parties’ accounts had been expected to appear shortly … until an eagle-eyed contact told your author they seemed to have already gone online without fanfare last week.
Compare and contrast: Labour spending racked up from £44.5 million in 2022. Tory spending rose too, but less drastically, from £32.7 million. One of the more noticeable differences was in staff salaries — which rose by more than £5 million for Labour, but by less than £1 million for the Conservatives.
Rolling in it: Despite some Tory operators whispering about how skint the party is these days, Conservative Party income outstripped Labour’s in 2023. It brought in a bumper £59 million, though £10 million of this was from a single legacy in supermarket tycoon John Sainsbury’s will. Labour had a deficit; the Tories recorded a huge surplus.
Disclaimer: It is, of course, worth pointing out that these accounts end in December so an awful lot has changed since then. The totals also cover all costs, not just campaigning, and your Playbook author is not an accountant, etc.
The small print: It’s unclear how much (if anything) Labour’s accounts include of its multi-million-pound legal battles over a controversial report that was leaked in 2020. The party abandoned its case against Corbyn-era former staffers it had accused of leaking the report in June (per the BBC) but the accounts pre-date that. The accounts mention the report only briefly but don’t attach any costs explicitly, that your author could tell.
Oh, and: Labour membership fell to 370,450 by the end of 2023 — a drop of 37,000 from 2022 and well down on its Corbyn-era peak. The Conservatives don’t publish membership figures, natch.
RETRIBUTION: Today’s details will be pored over by Tory leadership contenders who need no prompting when it comes to demanding reforms from CCHQ. Kemi Badenoch did not pull her punches on a call with councilors last night, according to one attendee. Our mole claimed she told them that some people who work at CCHQ are not Conservatives, and for them it is “a job like working in Tesco.” Yikes.
Also asking: Her rival Tom Tugendhat has launched his own “members’ survey” this morning to ask what they think needs to happen to reform CCHQ. He also has a video with an MP supporter in which he appears to have taken mild inspiration from Matt Hancock.
Speaking of CCHQ jobs: Gareth Fox, the much-maligned head of the candidates’ department, will soon leave his post, James Heale writes in the Spectator.
MEANWHILE IN THE SNP: Its accounts show membership declined again by nearly 10,000 to hit 64,525 in July 2024, my colleague Andrew McDonald texts in. In happier news, the party that recently relied on dead donors ended 2023 with a surplus of more than £600,000 — but much of this was down to SNP HQ leaning on its branches to fund election campaigns. 
In other news: The accounts confirm that the SNP still hasn’t fully paid back *that* ex-Chief Executive Peter Murrell for £107,620 he loaned the party in 2021. £60,000 is still listed as being owed to “former executive management,” Andrew writes. Separately the SNP’s auditors only signed off the accounts on a “qualified” basis — meaning some documentation related to cash received by the party was missing.
And the rest: Reform UK’s income nearly doubled last year from £692,434 to £1.35 million, mostly from donations. And Liberal Democrat membership fell from 97,493 in 2022 to 86,599 in 2023. Perhaps all that paddleboarding has brought them back?
BACK IN TORY LEADERSHIP MATTERS: A survey by Liz Truss’ friends at the Popular Conservatives has put Badenoch and right-winger Robert Jenrick almost neck and neck in the contest to be the next leader, on 28 percent each. Priti Patel had 17 percent and James Cleverly, Tugendhat and Mel Stride all have less than 5 percent each.
But surprise surprise: It depends on who you ask! A survey by the rather wetter Conservative Environment Network of 362 supporters (via the Express), of which 302 were Tory members, put Tugendhat first on 31 percent.
BBB? After Jenrick told the Telegraph’s Dominic Penna he’d be “delighted” to have Boris Johnson in his shadow Cabinet, some of his critics were rather mischievously sharing this 2022 article in which he … er … called on Johnson to quit. “We wish both born-again Conservatives and born-again Boris fans well,” one person close to Patel’s team snipped to Playbook.
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: A host of A-listers took to the stage at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, with former U.S. President Bill Clinton hitting out hard at Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey delivering a rebuke to his running mate JD Vance’s “childless cat lady” comments. But the night truly belonged to Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ running mate. Our Stateside colleague Zach Montellaro has written in with this dispatch …
Walz to Walz coverage: Sixteen days ago, Tim Walz was a genial, little-known governor of the Midwestern state of Minnesota. Now he’s one incredibly contentious election away from becoming America’s vice president.
Coach Walz: Walz used his speech to introduce himself to Americans as a camo-hat-wearin’, gun-totin’ former teacher, football coach (the American kind) and veteran ready to step up. “You might not know it, but I haven’t given a lot of big speeches like this. But I have given a lot of pep talks,” said Walz. “It’s the fourth quarter. We’re down a field goal. But we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball.”
Walz appeal: Walz’s job is to round out the corners of the Californian Harris, especially among rural voters and white men. The hope among Democrats is that he can also serve as an attack dog, deploying his folksiness to define their Republican rivals as “weird.”
Best-case scenario for Democrats: Walz is Bill Clinton 2.0. The former president, more than 20 years removed from public office, loaded his own speech up with neighborliness and zingers at Trump’s expense. Some Democrats, as our Jonathan Martin chronicled, want Clinton back on the trail to connect with the “independents, guys in [veterans’] halls, firemen,” in the words of New York Governor Kathy Hochul. Failing that, the party could do a lot worse than a guy whose former football players helped introduce him to America at the convention Wednesday night.
The early reviews: A good chunk of Americans don’t know much about either VP candidate, per an AP-NORC survey released Wednesday. But of those who do have an opinion, about one-third have a favorable view of Walz, with just about a quarter saying the same for Vance.
Republicans are trying to knock Walz down a peg. They’ve honed in on his record as governor, casting him as a radical progressive cosplaying in flannel, and going after his military service. (Ben Kesling had a good explainer in POLITICO Magazine about the realities of Walz’s 24 years in the National Guard.) Walz didn’t shy away from his time in the military on stage Wednesday night, arguing for gun control and saying: “I know guns. I’m a veteran. I’m a hunter. And I was a better shot than most Republicans in Congress and I got the trophies to prove it.”
Reality check: Still, few vote for a president based on the attacks on — or accolades received by — their No. 2, no matter how rapturous the applause was for Walz in Chicago. “Most people, when they cast their ballots, they’re basing it based on who the presidential nominee is,” as Vance himself said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” earlier this month. “It’s just straightforward political reality.”
And it’s not the only big speech! Clacton MP Nigel Farage, who is back across the pond for the second time since the election this weekend (via the Mirror) — will go for a third time in September too, to speak to the right-wing Heartland Institute in Chicago. A “platinum table” has already paid $50,000 to sit with him, reckon the Guardian’s Peter Walker and Aletha Adu. Reform UK tells the pair he agreed to it before polling day. 
THE NEW JIMMY CARTER? Outgoing President Joe Biden meanwhile could enjoy a resurgence now that he’s been unburdened by the small matter of — er — running in an election, Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth told my colleague Anne McElvoy. He’s “energetic and focused on what needs to be done next,” Duckworth said in a Q&A at the CNN-POLITICO Grill for the Power Play podcast. “I really see him moving into a time period where he’s going to be very much like Jimmy Carter, a past president who does so much more for the country.” Listen here.  
PARLIAMENT: Scoping out a good brunch spot. 
YET MORE JOB NEWS: Stephen Lovegrove, the ex-No. 10 national security adviser who was replaced hours into Liz Truss’ tenure, will lead a review into the AUKUS defense partnership that reports back by the end of October, the Ministry of Defence announced overnight. PA has a write-up. Refreshingly, the government appears to have deliberately chosen a familiar face from administrations past who (as far as Playbook can tell) hasn’t worked for Labour Together or the like. 
No pressure: It is part of a wider defense review that will set priorities for the years ahead … while Starmer faces ever greater pressure to commit to a date to hit spending 2.5 percent of GDP on defense. Officials insist this review can only ramp up, not water down, Britain’s commitment to AUKUS — but with cash tight, it is worth watching.
AND ANOTHER JOB: New Labour veteran Peter Mandelson has thrown his hat in the ring to become chancellor of Oxford University, reports Éilis Mathur for student paper Cherwell. Will it put paid to his much-reported hopes to become ambassador to the U.S.? Unknown. Perhaps wise to say it ain’t over till it’s over … 
HOME TO ROOST: One report Labour commissioned has now reported back — ex-Siemens Chief Executive Juergen Maier’s Rail and Urban Transport Review, ordered up well before the election. The Yorkshire Post splashes on the line that it is calling for work to start on the Northern Powerhouse Rail “in full” — from Hull to Liverpool with a new station in Bradford … but Transport Secretary Louise Haigh isn’t making any decisions until a capital spending review is over in several months.
KNOWING THE PRICE OF EVERYTHING: Labour ministers cited “significant financial costs” as a reason not to refund wrongly convicted prisoners who were charged for their prison beds, according to a letter seen by the Guardian’s Peter Walker.
BLACK GOLD: Nine Labour MPs have accepted £45,000 so far from lobbying firms that represent oil and gas companies, according to Ruby Lott‑Lavigna​​​​ for the NGO Global Witness.
SHARK ON INFESTED WATERS: Pollution campaigner Feargal Sharkey has told the i he sees no cohesive plan to deal with sewage in rivers and ministers are giving “confusing” messages. It splashes the paper.
STATS DUMP: Figures are out at 9.30 a.m. on the GP workforce in England … NHS bed availability … and progress on the last government’s “Great British Insulation Scheme” for private homes.
ESSAY QUESTION: They’ve got their GCSEs, but not yet the vote — plans to extend the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds didn’t make the king’s speech. My colleague Noah Keate has a counterintuitive piece looking at claims that Reform UK could be the surprise beneficiaries, when it does happen, given the number of young men who are on the right.
NOT SO FULL STEAM AHEAD: Councils will have Louise Haigh’s “full backing” to roll out 20mph schemes if they want to because the government has “ended all culture wars full stop,” the transport secretary told the Streets Ahead podcast. The Times and Mail pick it up. Several Conservatives (and drivers) may be in danger of popping a blood vessel.
IN MEMORIAM: Conservative MP David Davis told GB News he would campaign to abolish the U.S.-U.K. extradition treaty — a drum he’s been beating for a while — in memory of entrepreneur Mike Lynch, whom he worked with after Lynch was cleared of fraud.
MONEY FOR MPOX: Africa Minister Ray Collins announced £3.1 million for a UNICEF partnership against mpox and cholera during a visit to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
REPORT OUT TODAY: Calls to the NSPCC hotline about the physical punishment of children tripled from April 2023 to March 2024.
THE OTHER LEADERSHIP CONTEST: Nominations for the Scottish Conservative leader contest close at noon, with five candidates still in the race. Murdo Fraser has his launch today — but crime reporter-turned-politician Russell Findlay is seen as the favorite to win, reports PA’s Katrine Bussey. The winner will be announced on Sept. 27.
UKRAINE LATEST: Kyiv announced it destroyed Russian pontoon bridges with U.S. weapons as part of its push into Russian soil. It came after a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, which Russia said was one of the biggest since the war started.
HOLDING ON TO CEASE-FIRE HOPES: President Joe Biden emphasized the need for a cease-fire in Gaza in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Wednesday, the White House said, and discussed upcoming Cairo talks “to remove any remaining obstacles.”
**A message from Google: Children today are growing up in a digital world, so giving them the tools and knowledge to make good decisions online is essential. Google’s Be Internet Legends programme helps children learn key online safety skills and offers fun interactive materials to help children be confident online explorers. Research by IPSOS Mori found that kids are twice as likely to show a better understanding of internet safety after taking part in the programme.The adventure-filled free online Interland game is also a great way to keep the little ones entertained on any of those rainy summer days, full of smart lessons like how to share with care, why being kind is cool and how to spot online scams. This September 12th, you’re invited to join parents, teachers and students for our annual Back to School assembly, in partnership with Parent Zone. Learn more at go/beinternetlegends.**
Schools Minister Catherine McKinnell broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.)  … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.20 a.m.) … 5 Live (8.35 a.m.). 
No Conservative broadcast round. 
Also on GB News Breakfast: Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik (7.05 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (8.07 a.m.) … Former Labour MP Harriet Harman (8.50 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Washington political consultant Morris Reid (7.30 a.m.). 
POLITICO UK:  Nigel Farage could be the real winner if Labour lets teens vote.
Daily Express: Divers find bodies of tycoon and his daughter.
Daily Mail: Superyacht hope lost as divers find five bodies. 
Daily Mirror: Mum and 3 kids killed in house blaze horror. 
Daily Star: Python bit my goolies while I was on the bog.
Financial Times: Public sector unions challenge Labour to repair losses from decade of pay cuts.
i: Labour has no real plan to fix UK sewage crisis, Sharkey warns.
Metro: Freedom of the Swiftie.
The Daily Telegraph: Alzheimer’s wonder drug is given the go-ahead. 
The Guardian: UK police threaten extradition to tackle sextortion criminals.
The Independent: Zelensky needles Putin with drone attack on Moscow. 
The Times: Divers find five bodies in wreck of superyacht.
The New Statesman: The Christian comeback. 
The Spectator: All hail Harris!
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: It’ll be sunny … until you get into the office, then it’ll drizzle. Sorry. High 21C, low 16C. 
WITH ALL THIS TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY: A bigger question is whether Rachel Reeves will disrupt — *checks notes* — the Broadgate Circus dating circuit. My colleague Eleanor Myers has a fun piece on where the out-of-towners go in the City to seek out eligible bachelors who can help them buy a car. Repellent crypto bros, it’s your time to shine. 
THE JOB BOARD: The Lib Dems are hiring an education adviser and foreign affairs adviser. 
FOOD NEWS: Downing Street’s favorite long-lens photographer Steve Back has snapped the PM’s lunch (including meaty McCoys for the pescatarian). The Dom Raab Special it is not. 
MOVING ON: Momentum’s Head of Communications Angus Satow is leaving the sunlit uplands of the Starmer-critical left to study a master’s in the history of political thought at Queen Mary and UCL. 
GOOD LUCK: To Labour adviser Nicola Bartlett, who is doing the Great North Run in aid of the Samaritans. Powerful message via her X.
SPENNY ZEN: If you’re enjoying the peace of recess, you can take advantage of the “wellbeing wanders” being hosted in the gardens of Westminster Abbey. (Only *cough* £29 for entry.)
THOSE WERE THE DETAILS: Don’t miss the BBC’s Laurie Margolis explaining how he got the scoop on the 1982 Falklands invasion by intercepting radio signals … and found out before the government did.
NOW READ: The Spectator’s Freddy Gray argues the “strange new power” of Kamala Harris’ candidacy is, er, vagueness, as she avoids serious engagement with the media and relies on hype.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Stockport MP Navendu Mishra … Former European Commissioner Julian King … Labour peer Margaret Prosser … Former Foreign Office SpAd Ed Jones … DHSC Press Secretary Jonathan Reilly.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters